Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has taken a significant step in preparing for his nation's chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) next year. He announced plans to form an informal advisory team comprising experienced statesmen, including former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. This move, described by analysts as "unprecedented," aims to tackle the complex geopolitical challenges facing ASEAN, particularly in relation to the ongoing crises in Myanmar and the South China Sea.
Anwar's proposed advisory team could also feature prominent figures such as former Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo and former Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi. This selection reflects a strategic approach in which Anwar seeks to bridge gaps in institutional expertise while navigating the intricacies of ASEAN leadership. Experts note that this reliance on informal advisers signals an acknowledgment of the challenges that lie ahead.
The South China Sea and the situation in Myanmar represent two of the most pressing issues confronting ASEAN. Both challenges have proven nearly intractable, regardless of leadership strategies. The Myanmar crisis, which escalated following the military coup in February 2021, continues to threaten regional stability. Retno Marsudi's extensive experience, including over 300 meetings with various stakeholders during Indonesia's chairmanship, positions her as a critical asset in addressing this issue.
Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, highlighted the magnitude of these challenges. He stated that the Myanmar crisis and tensions in the South China Sea are significant issues that ASEAN has struggled to address effectively.
Malaysia's Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan has publicly supported Anwar's choice of Thaksin as an adviser. He emphasized Thaksin's unique position, being accepted by the United States, close to China, and influential within Thailand. Hasan believes this could foster enhanced cooperation between ASEAN and global powers.
Yeo's extensive dialogue on China since leaving public office in 2011, alongside Marsudi's current role as a United Nations special envoy on water, adds depth to Anwar's advisory team. This combination of experience may provide valuable insights into navigating the multifaceted challenges facing ASEAN.
Despite the potential benefits of this advisory group, Anwar's decision has not gone without criticism. Some opposition politicians in Malaysia have questioned the inclusion of Thaksin, who has a controversial past marked by corruption and abuse of power convictions in Thailand. This skepticism reflects a broader concern about the implications of relying on informal advisers for such a pivotal role.
Sharon Seah, an expert on ASEAN affairs, noted that Anwar likely felt compelled to seek guidance from seasoned diplomats due to the challenging geopolitical environment. She believes that having experienced individuals advising him is not inherently negative. Seah suggested that this group would work behind the scenes rather than participating directly in ministerial retreats or summit-level meetings.
Joanne Lin echoed these sentiments, suggesting that Anwar’s consultative approach might be a strategy to secure broader buy-in from member states while minimizing opposition to Malaysia’s initiatives. Lin posited that leveraging the experience of former ministers could provide valuable insights pertinent to Malaysia’s chairmanship.
Bilahari Kausikan remarked on the uniqueness of Anwar’s approach, stating that while it is advisory in nature, it does not bind ASEAN as a whole due to its consensus-based structure. He emphasized the need for transparency and inclusivity to maintain public confidence during Malaysia’s leadership of ASEAN.
Jamil Ghani pointed out that while this pragmatic approach has the potential to enhance decision-making, it is vital for Anwar to ensure that the informal advisory team does not undermine the work of ASEAN's special envoy on Myanmar and the ASEAN troika. Tang raised concerns that the Myanmar crisis represents an internal challenge for ASEAN, threatening unity and centrality among member states.
Kurlantzick expressed skepticism about whether Anwar's approach would lead to significant breakthroughs. He acknowledged that while building consensus is essential, he remained uncertain about how effective this informal group could be in addressing nearly insurmountable issues like the South China Sea and Myanmar.
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