Iran on Edge: The Prospect of a Trump Return Stirs Economic and Political Concerns

Iran is closely watching the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House, as his previous administration's policies had profound effects on the country's economy and stability. During Trump's presidency, Iran faced a historic reduction in oil exports, which fell to under 400,000 barrels per day. This cut significantly dented Iran's petrodollars, which account for about 70 percent of government revenues. Between 2018 and 2020, Iran's national currency depreciated by more than 600 percent. The economic downturn was considered the "toughest" period since the Islamic Republic's founding, according to Iran's then-Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri.

Under Trump's campaign, Iran's oil exports faced significant reductions, leading to severe economic repercussions. The dramatic fall in revenue from oil exports strained the government's finances, posing immense risks for Iran's leadership. The declining value of the national currency exacerbated these challenges, leading to heightened economic instability within the country.

The volatile economic situation under Trump's administration amplified concerns within Iran's leadership. The potential return of Trump in a future administration raises fears of renewed economic shocks. A further reduction in oil exports could deliver another blow to the nation's financial health, intensifying the ongoing economic crisis.

Moreover, the recent tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran have increased the possibility of a broader Middle East conflict. This situation could embolden a new Trump administration to adopt bolder military actions against Iran's regime. Such actions might further destabilize the region and heighten tensions.

In addition to economic and military implications, a Trump comeback could fuel increased protest movements within Iran. The country's economic hardships and leadership's responses to them have already triggered public discontent. Renewed pressure from a Trump-led United States could intensify these grievances, potentially leading to larger and more widespread demonstrations.