The United States faces a pivotal moment in its nuclear strategy as experts analyze potential policy shifts under future administrations. Since 1992, the U.S. has refrained from conducting explosive nuclear tests, aligning with global trends, except for North Korea, which remains the only country to have tested a nuclear weapon in the 21st century. As the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, signed in 1996, continues to prohibit nuclear weapons testing worldwide, the U.S. employs nonexplosive "subcritical" tests to maintain its arsenal. Meanwhile, updating its nuclear capabilities is underway, with significant implications for international security dynamics.
The United States maintains approximately 12,000 nuclear warheads, a number considerably reduced through treaties with Russia. However, the impending expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) in February 2026 raises questions about future arms control agreements. As the U.S. enhances its nuclear infrastructure, including a comprehensive overhaul of its weapons systems, strategic decisions loom large. Among these is the proposed development of a nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile, initially put forward by the Trump administration in 2018. Although the Biden administration attempted to halt this initiative, it may be revisited in 2026 should political tides shift.
China's efforts to expand its nuclear arsenal add complexity to the global nuclear landscape. While lagging behind the U.S. and Russia in terms of sheer numbers, China's advancements prompt strategic recalibrations among major powers. In this context, America's reliance on its 14 submarines equipped with nuclear-armed ballistic missiles remains a crucial deterrent component.
Adding to the intrigue is the forthcoming deployment of Scorpius at the Nevada National Security Site. This machine will produce X-ray images of experiments involving plutonium, providing deeper insights into nuclear reactions without contravening testing moratoriums. However, some experts fear that the longstanding U.S. moratorium on nuclear testing could be at risk. Reports suggest that the Trump administration contemplated resuming tests, a possibility that could drastically alter international perceptions.
“That will give a very good blueprint for how the administration is viewing the role of nuclear weapons and how it will approach investing in the kind of force that they would like to see,” – Sharon Squassoni
The potential resumption of nuclear tests incites varied expert opinions. Steve Fetter expressed apprehension about such a move:
“I think it’d be a huge mistake. But it’s something that I and others will be looking at.” – Steve Fetter
Despite these concerns, Lisbeth Gronlund noted that tangible changes in U.S. policy might be limited:
“His ability to change what’s actually happening on the ground in the U.S. is pretty close to zero,” – Lisbeth Gronlund
This statement underscores the complexities involved in altering entrenched defense policies.
The U.S.'s withdrawal from the Treaty on Open Skies in 2020 further underscores shifting attitudes toward international agreements designed to enhance transparency and trust. Although America upheld its terms until withdrawal, this decision reflects broader trends toward reevaluating multilateral commitments.
As these developments unfold, experts closely monitor signals from Washington regarding future nuclear strategies. The anticipated expiration of New START and technological advancements like Scorpius could significantly impact global arms control efforts.
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