China’s Demographic Dilemma: Marriage and Birth Rates Plunge to Historic Lows

Marriages in China plummeted by a fifth in the past year, marking the steepest decline on record. This significant drop has intensified concerns over the country's birthrate, which has been steadily declining for decades due to factors such as China's rigorous one-child policy, implemented from 1980 to 2015, and rapid urbanization. Despite a slight uptick in births last year, China's population has continued to shrink for the third consecutive year, highlighting an aging demographic challenge that authorities are striving to address.

The Chinese government has acknowledged the pressing demographic issue and, in November, directed local governments to allocate resources toward mitigating the population crisis. With approximately 300 million Chinese expected to retire in the coming decade, the implications of an aging population are profound. China, home to the world's second-largest population at 1.4 billion, faces an urgent need to adapt to these demographic shifts.

Despite the slight increase in births last year, attributed partially to 2024 being the Chinese zodiac year of the dragon, the overall trend remains concerning. The number of marriages recorded last year was less than half of the 13.47 million witnessed in 2013. Only 6.1 million couples registered for marriage last year, a significant decline from the previous year's 7.68 million.

"Unprecedented! Even in 2020, due to COVID-19, marriages only decreased by 12.2 per cent,"
Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

In addition to fewer marriages, more than 2.6 million couples filed for divorce last year, representing a 1.1% increase from 2023. The declining interest in marriage and family formation is often attributed to the high costs of childcare and education in China. To combat this trend, authorities have implemented measures such as urging colleges and universities to offer "love education" programs.

"The Chinese government's political and economic ambitions will be ruined by its demographic Achilles' heel,"
Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.