OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has outlined a visionary yet pragmatic roadmap for the future of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a technology he believes will significantly impact society and the economy. In a recent statement, Altman articulated how AGI systems will excel in certain areas while falling short in others, emphasizing the need for human oversight and intervention. Furthermore, Altman acknowledged that OpenAI's historical reluctance to open-source its technologies might have placed the company "on the wrong side of history." Despite these challenges, OpenAI is ambitiously aiming for $100 billion in revenue by 2029, driven by strategic partnerships and significant investments.
Altman envisions an economic landscape transformed by AI, where the cost to use AI diminishes by a factor of ten every year. “AI will seep into all areas of the economy and society; we will expect everything to be smart,” he stated, underscoring the pervasive influence AI is expected to exert. However, he cautioned that while technological progress typically enhances metrics like health outcomes and economic prosperity, it does not inherently increase equality.
“The historical impact of technological progress suggests that most of the metrics we care about (health outcomes, economic prosperity, etc.) get better on average and over the long-term, but increasing equality does not seem technologically determined and getting this right may require new ideas,” – Sam Altman
To democratize AI access, Altman proposes a "compute budget" ensuring everyone on Earth can utilize substantial AI capabilities. This concept aligns with OpenAI's goal of extending its reach and impact globally. Meanwhile, the company is reportedly in discussions to raise up to $40 billion in funding, reflecting its commitment to substantial growth and innovation.
OpenAI maintains a strong partnership with Microsoft, which is expected to continue long-term. This collaboration includes a contractual definition of AGI that triggers more favorable investment terms if certain milestones, such as generating $100 billion in profits, are achieved. Altman also mentioned OpenAI's pledge to spend up to $500 billion with partners on developing a vast data network, crucial for advancing AI technologies.
While costs for training and developing AI are decreasing, massive investments remain essential to achieving AGI-level capabilities. Companies like DeepSeek are already creating capable, inexpensive AI models. However, Altman emphasized that AGI would not be perfect and will require substantial human supervision.
“an AI system that can tackle increasingly complex problems, at human level, in many fields” – Sam Altman
This vision of AGI is ambitious yet acknowledges the limitations and necessary trade-offs involved. Altman highlighted the importance of balancing safety with individual empowerment and suggested that open-sourcing more technology could empower users while maintaining safety standards.
“Many of us expect to need to give people more control over the technology than we have historically, including open-sourcing more, and accept that there is a balance between safety and individual empowerment that will require trade-offs.” – Sam Altman
Furthermore, he acknowledged potential disruptions to the balance of power between capital and labor due to AI advancements.
“In particular, it does seem like the balance of power between capital and labor could easily get messed up, and this may require early intervention.” – Sam Altman
As for AGI's capabilities, Altman admitted that these systems might not generate groundbreaking ideas but will excel in certain areas while failing in others.
“[AGI systems] will not have the biggest new ideas,” – Sam Altman
“and it will be great at some things but surprisingly bad at others.” – Sam Altman
Altman's remarks underscore a cautious optimism about AI's trajectory. He believes continuous investment will yield predictable gains in performance.
“you can spend arbitrary amounts of money and get continuous and predictable gains” in AI performance. – Sam Altman
However, he acknowledges that some decisions regarding AGI safety might be unpopular.
“some major decisions and limitations related to AGI safety that will be unpopular.” – Sam Altman
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