Japan’s Urban Centers on the Brink: Aging Populations and Shrinking Cities by 2035

By 2035, Japan's urban landscape is set to undergo significant changes as the nation grapples with an ageing population. In Kobe, one of Japan's prominent cities, the elderly will comprise 34.8 percent of the population, a trend mirrored in cities like Sapporo, Shizuoka, and Kitakyushu. This demographic shift signals a tipping point for Japan's major cities, excluding Tokyo, with all 20 designated cities projected to have over 25 percent of their populations aged 65 and older.

The implications of this demographic transformation are far-reaching. Larger cities may initially stave off shrinkage by attracting residents from surrounding areas. However, this buffer will diminish within the next decade, as sources of additional population become exhausted. By 2020, cities such as Kitakyushu, Kobe, Kyoto, and Osaka had already experienced population declines from 2015 levels. This trend is expected to expand by 2025, with Sendai, Yokohama, and Kumamoto joining the ranks of shrinking cities.

The outlook by 2035 foresees further contraction in Nagoya, Sapporo, Hiroshima, and Okayama. The challenges these urban areas face extend beyond mere population loss. The increasing need to accommodate a burgeoning elderly population adds another layer of complexity to urban planning and resource allocation.

The book "Future Atlas: What Happens in Japan with a Declining Population," authored by Masashi Kawai, delves into these pressing issues. It highlights the looming demographic crisis as a pivotal moment for Japan's cities. The insights offered in this publication underscore the urgent need for strategic planning to address the multifaceted challenges posed by an ageing society.