David Spiegelhalter, an Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, has dedicated his career to making mathematics more accessible to the public. In a recent episode of “My Wildest Prediction” with Euronews Business, he shared groundbreaking expertise on the incredible role that artificial intelligence (AI) plays when it comes to making determinations and forecasts. He talked about the need for strong mathematical thinking to get through uncertainty.
Though still awed by the tremendous potential of AI, Spiegelhalter is adamant that it is impossible for AI to fully replace human mathematical logic and reasoning. AI miscalibrates its recommendations. He’s glad that AI can sometimes identify when it’s made an error, which he sees as a potentially useful feature. He cautions that predictions can only truly bite back against uncertainty if they are backed up by solid mathematical foundations.
The Role of AI and Predictions
Against this backdrop, during our discussion, Spiegelhalter underscored how AI can fall short when it comes to producing useful predictions. He stated, “For generating ideas, for summarising reports, for coding, [AI] is brilliant and all of that. But for factual matters, you’ve got to check it.” This statement highlights his idea that we all need to apply a skeptical lens when processing AI-generated content.
Spiegelhalter’s wildest prediction is rather ironic: “My wildest prediction is that people will stop making predictions.” It’s a market today filled with people doing that with not so much base of confidence. This became all too clear during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. He noted that in the early stage of the Covid pandemic, similar uncertainty loomed. Even so, many of these critics confidently and defiantly went on the record with their harsh assessments. This is very much in keeping with his deep concern about the dangers of overconfidence in unpredictable situations.
Understanding Uncertainty through Probability
In his book, “The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck,” Spiegelhalter explores the complexities of probability and uncertainty. He asserts that probability is a human construct, stating, “Probability is not natural. We just made it up in the mid-1600s.” This lens breaks with traditional approaches to risk and uncertainty that have defined how society thinks about them.
Spiegelhalter wants us to change how we think about uncertainty. He thinks that acceptance of probabilities and probability-based thinking is the way to develop a much healthier perspective toward uncertain environments. He recalled, “I don’t think I’ll ever hear anything sadder than to know the people at the time knew what was going to happen.” For Abraham, uncertainty is an inescapable aspect of existence that ought to be embraced instead of avoided.
A Changing Work Landscape
Looking at the broader changes to society, Spiegelhalter added that today’s current workforce faces greater job precarity than in the past few decades. Now, people would be jumping around from job to job so much more frequently. No stability, no—everything was insecurity, job insecurity,” he pointed out. His own career contrasts sharply with this trend. He remained in the same position for 32 years, underscoring a different era’s stability.
Retraction of AI quality comparison Spiegelhalter also compared the behavior of AI tools to that of social media platforms, claiming that AI programs are more moderated. Always a gentleman, the AI programs I utilize are consistently polite. It’s like speaking to a superhuman diplomat. This observation highlights his belief that AI can provide support in navigating complex information without the sensationalism often found on social media.
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