The future of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), a critical report that informs U.S. citizens about the impacts of climate change, is in jeopardy following abrupt changes in administration. The Global Change Research Act of 1990 requires such a report every four years. This report provides a detailed analysis of how increasing temperatures threaten the public’s health and economic security everywhere in the country.
The fifth National Climate Assessment was released in 2023, offering detailed insights into the local and regional effects of climate change. As organizers, this iteration brought pretty profound reminders of how badly we need to understand these impacts, deeply. In doing so, policymakers and agencies can maximize the return on their investments. It brought together a lot of pre-climate research. This resource is critical for many federal agencies, such as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Agriculture, to operate.
Reid Sherman, a key figure involved in the NCA, articulated the significance of the report, stating, “The list of possible people who could make use of the information is endless.” He further noted the potential consequences of losing this resource, emphasizing that it creates “a gap in information provision for people who have to make decisions about future planning, long-term decisions that may last 30 to 50 years.”
The NCA doesn’t just deliver data. It stands for an intangible asset, a well-established language that promotes and encourages collaboration between agencies. Like all things written by us, the glossary is key to getting the most from the content. It’s particularly beneficial for the layperson who might not be well-versed on climate science. Sherman remarked, “It wouldn’t be obvious for outsiders … how important something like the glossary was,” highlighting the report’s layered complexity.
On April 28, 2023, the fourth National Climate Assessment was suddenly and unceremoniously repudiated by the Trump administration. Hundreds of scientists had worked hard to bring it to fruition. They were told, with no notice, that effective immediately they were no longer needed. This decision raised new fears that the NCA process would go by the wayside. Increasingly, people are asking how it will continue to support its core mission.
While the administration can’t kill the NCA, it surely would like to see it defunct, since Congress created it. The future of the NCA is far from assured. Nearly all other staff connected to the program were reamed, including Sherman. That opens the door to questions about how transparent future assessments will be. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) press office rejected our request for an interview about this issue. A lot of important questions are left hanging.
The latest assessment, just released in 2023, is now publicly available for download here. Yet, with no viable plans to the contrary for the sixth assessment, slated for 2028, stakeholders are still left holding the bag on confusion. Cutting this vital lifeline would be devastating. It could revolutionize how governments at all levels decide how to adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change across every sector.
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