Soviet space probe Kosmos 482, a piece of the past, is currently on a trajectory to reenter Earth’s atmosphere later this month. Look for this historic spacecraft to come home! Kosmos 482 on March 31, 1972. Fortunately, for over fifty years, it has drifted in orbit as an unintended consequence of its original mission, which went wrong when the spacecraft was meant to explore Venus. According to JAXA, specialists expect the probe’s orbit to naturally deteriorate, leading the spacecraft to fall to Earth. Save the date for either May 10 or May 12, 2023!
Kosmos 482 was a component of a larger mission through a chain of Venera probes, to eventually master the art of surveying Venus. The probe was expected to achieve a lot during its journey. It ended prematurely when the upper stage of its rocket did not ignite as expected. This failure caused Kosmos 482 to not reach the required speed to overcome Earth’s gravitational force. Because of this, the craft still orbits. One of these, believed to be the Venus descent vehicle, is on a long, wide elliptical orbit.
At first, this meant Kosmos 482’s elongated, egg-shaped orbit stretched almost 10,000 kilometers away from the planet at its apogee. Over the decades, its path has changed to a more circular orbit. Today, it operates to within only 350 kilometers of Earth’s surface. Kosmos 482’s orbit is indeed getting tighter. It is getting close to the time that it will run out of energy to continue fighting against Earth’s gravity and atmospheric drag.
As per U.S. Space Force spokespersons, the spacecraft is projected to reenter Earth’s atmosphere on May 12th. Satellite analyst Marco Langbroek of Delft Technical University in the Netherlands has taken a shot at predicting. He posits a potential early reentry of May 10.
“You don’t want it to hit you.” – Jonathan McDowell
Experts are understandably concerned about the increased risk posed by the return of Kosmos 482. In truth, the vast majority of space debris burns up upon atmospheric reentry. By contrast, Kosmos 482 should survive its descent and strike the ground at speeds that large aircraft in flight go—potentially many hundreds of kilometers per hour, even up to 1100 km/h. This begs the question of what danger it poses should it fall not in an unpopulated area but one more urban.
Samantha Lawler, an astrophysicist, shared her concern about the growing threat of objects reentering Earth’s atmosphere. She noted, “If they’re dropping pieces like that with even a fraction of the 7,000 satellites, just by the sheer numbers, that is terrifying.”
Kosmos 482’s reentry represents a powerful chapter in space exploration history. It is a celebration of great discoveries and the things we have yet to accomplish that will be made possible from these space missions. The Venera program saw remarkable successes, such as Venera 7’s groundbreaking soft landing on Venus in 1970 and Venera 8’s successful data transmission from Venus for nearly an hour after landing in 1972. Yet Kosmos 482 serves as a cautionary tale about the risks and unpredictability inherent in such efforts.
Experts are closely watching Kosmos 482’s impending reentry. Pressing worries over the global rise in space debris and its possible consequences for life on Earth have never been higher. The incident underscores a pressing need for more comprehensive tracking and management of objects in orbit around the Earth. This approach will better mitigate the hazards of falling debris.
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