Facing off over Kashmir—Tensions between India and Pakistan have been high. That is true, they have recently relaxed, prompted by the announcement of the ceasefire and promising diplomatic moves. India’s High Commissioner in Singapore, Shilpak Ambule, emphasized the bilateral nature of the Kashmir issue, stating, “Kashmir is a bilateral issue, not an international issue.” This sentiment illustrates India’s historic stance that any resolution should be brokered directly between the two countries with no involvement from a third party.
Kashmir has been the source of conflict since the two countries achieved independence in 1947. Though India administers the larger part of the great Himalayan region, Pakistan similarly claims it entirely. Since 1989, the conflict has promoted a large armed insurgency in India-controlled Kashmir. India accuses Pakistan of fomenting this discontent through support of violent separatist groups. In return, Pakistan insists that its role is restricted to moral, political, and diplomatic support.
This month, India launched airstrikes on what it called “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan proper, as well as in Pakistani-administered Kashmir. In retaliation, Pakistan has disavowed these charges and declared the targeted locations civilian. In the aftermath of the strikes, Pakistan demanded a neutral probe into the incidents.
Ambule reiterated India’s stance against third-party mediation, asserting, “For us, the word mediation does not work with the Kashmir issue.” This claim resonates with India’s official line, which has long maintained that it will settle such issues bilaterally with Pakistan. Indian defence ministry sources further confirmed that military operations directors from both countries were scheduled to discuss pressing issues on Sunday. Unfortunately, these critical conversations have now been pushed back until Monday night.
In another interesting parallel, U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew his support from India’s stance on Kashmir and called for a ceasefire with Pakistan on Saturday. The exception of the announcement is creating tremendous positive ripple effects on regional stability. Following the ceasefire, Pakistan reopened its airspace on Saturday—a move welcomed by various stakeholders.
India too made moves to bring about a return to regular order, including reopening 32 airports that had shut during the violent protests this winter. This measure is intended to facilitate travel and trade and should be seen as an effort to further shore up the status quo.
Financial markets have reacted favorably to these developments. Pakistan’s international bonds rallied sharply, gaining as much as 5.7 cents in the dollar after the ceasefire announcement and a fresh $1.4 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Investors, for their part, are cautiously optimistic about the potential for lasting peace across the region.
Indian politician and former cricketer Sachin Pilot—answering to these developments—called for an immediate clarification from the government. He particularly urged the special rapporteur to respond to the allegations made by the U.S. government about Kashmir. He remarked, “The government should give its stand on the statements made by America on the Kashmir issue, as this is a bilateral issue.” His statements thus reflect an acute concern about outside, foreign influence. India has staunchly maintained that this issue should be settled directly with Pakistan.
As the landscape continues to change, the United States and Russia are on guard against any surprises that could upend their newly-complicated relationship. Next week’s talks between military planners will be key. In doing so, they’ll go a long way towards determining the course of future India-Pakistan interactions.
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