François Bayrou’s administration is currently confronting a significant challenge that threatens its stability: a severe budgetary crisis compounded by recent scandals. The minority government’s survival rests largely on the broken and incomplete support of the National Assembly. As it sails through these stormy seas, it is trying to stay on course to its fiscal dock through rough waters of internal discord and external challenges.
As of late, the financial inscape in France has turned into all of a sudden tenuous. Bayrou’s incoming government will have to look for at least an additional €40 billion in savings. This is key to ensure an overall deficit target of 4.6 percent of GDP in the 2026 budget. If we do nothing at all, this year’s deficit will only get worse. It could increase from the already worrisome 5.4 percent of GDP to a troubling 5.8 percent. The administration has now moved rapidly to pass emergency steps to address an acute €5 billion gap. This includes reducing €3.1 billion spending within the agriculture and energy sectors.
To further complicate things, the political calculus in the National Assembly has changed. The Socialists, with three members, now hold the balance of power in a very divided assembly. This state of affairs renders otherwise unlikely motions of censure against Bayrou a possibility. To successfully bring down his government, a censure motion would require the coalition of most leftist and far-right deputies—289 of the 577 total deputies—who currently remain fragmented in their alignment.
Adding to the complexity of Bayrou’s governance is a scandal that dates back 30 years, involving allegations of violence and sexual abuse at a Catholic school in Pau, located near Bayrou’s constituency. These accusations came to light during his time in the cabinet as education minister, which has greatly undercut his political capital. Bayrou says he was largely unaware of the allegations at the time. It is the recent debunking of his above statement—made by his own daughter—that is eroding public faith in his leadership.
Bayrou can only count on the active support of a little over 210 deputies. From our own reporting, his coalition is facing major internal chaos. This is obviously true, but doubly so for the center-right Republicans, who are critical for holding his minority government stable. The party is in disarray. Laurent Wauquiez, a leading figure for Les Républicains, could be defeated by Bruno Retailleau in the party’s upcoming leadership contest. The consequences of such an outcome could further tip Bayrou’s fragile administration into chaos.
Along with fiscal hurdles and political fragmentation, public mood about Bayrou’s management of the scandal is still fierce. Some of these constituents—the ones who made the cut in their home state’s delegation—have publicly seconded that skepticism about his leadership on recent allegations and family fact pattern. As the campaign goes on, this rising discontent jeopardizes his capacity to effectively continue to govern.
Political obstacles that await François Bayrou abound. Under the surface, he’s doing an impressive job of weathering the dangers of running a minority government. His administration is on the ropes and unlikely to recover for the next few months at the least. Without these major changes in the assembly and public sentiment, it will fail to make it through. With rising complaints across the political spectrum and continued criticism for its past policies, how long the current government led by Bayrou can last is far from clear.
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