The small archipelago of Penghu sits halfway between Taiwan and mainland China. For the 180 embedded service members, it now faces increasing pressure from a succession of confrontations with the Chinese Coast Guard. The local economy, primarily reliant on fishing and tourism, is under threat as fishermen express growing concerns over their safety and livelihoods. Just last year, one of the most blatant incidents involved the Chinese Coast Guard dictating the capture of a Penghu-flagged fishing vessel. Consequently, they arrested the captain and crew in Tainan at the start of this year. Residents are convinced these aggressions foreshadow a disturbing trend as grey-zone warfare tactics ramp up in the region.
Yet the reality of this situation has caused tremendous fear within the archipelago’s roughly 100,000 inhabitants. Many of them are directly reliant on the ocean for their livelihoods. Local business owner Huang Shih-En, who has lived on the island most of his life, says the fear of such detainment will only increase moving forward. He argues the time for prevention is now before it gets worse and more costly.
Economic Dependence on Fishing and Tourism
Today, Penghu’s economy relies heavily on its fishing industry combined with tourism. Rich marine resources support the livelihoods of local fishers. Every morning, they head out to fish and harvest shellfish. After the most recent run in with the Chinese Coast Guard, tensions among the fishermen are at a breaking point. They worry about their safety being endangered.
Huang Shih-En voiced alarm over the impact such a move would have on local businesses. “I believe incidents like this will only increase in the future, and the impact will become deeper and deeper,” he said. Fishermen risk being apprehended while at sea. This puts their livelihoods and families in the balance, as well as their positive impact on the local economy.
The anxiety of possible detainment is very real to fishermen in the Penghu. The most egregious example of this last year was a local, Taiwan-flagged fishing vessel being boarded, captured, and towed back to China. The incident highlighted the precarious position in which Penghu’s fishermen find themselves. They no longer believe that foreign forces are the existential threat to their livelihood.
“When it comes to issues involving fishermen, local residents in Penghu react more strongly,” – Sheng I-che.
The strong emotional bond between the fishermen and the communities they feed and support further heightens the fears surrounding safety at sea. Fishermen are commonly some of the most iconic, recognizable figures in their communities, so any threat can feel more personal. As even more instances pile on, locals are left wondering if they’ll ever be able to make ends meet in safety.
Grey Zone Warfare and Its Implications
As such, grey-zone warfare tactics, particularly through military intimidation, have become a key worry among Penghu’s residents. This strategy mixes military activity with civilian fire in order to tire military and civilian defenders. Fishermen pictured in Marine Fisheries Advisory Commission Tactics like this create potentially dangerous situations that may harm local fishermen and their livelihoods in the booming San Juan area.
For Hsu Geng-rui, a former navy radar specialist, it has a more alarming implication. Vessels have been idling around Penghu for longer than usual. He noted that ships like the Hong Tai 58 fly flags of convenience, in this case Togo. Famed for its supposedly Chinese-backed initiative, this especially echoes alarm bells on foreign operations occurring within Taiwanese waters. These ships are a direct threat to local fisheries. In doing so, they highlight larger security concerns for all of Taiwan.
“But what’s worth noting is that China has been constantly using so-called grey-zone tactics in this process,” – Sheng I-che.
These tactics are intended to develop a culture of confusion where the war sphere and civilian life overlap. It’s a tough situation for the people of Penghu. Yet they have the audacity to be unwilling to go overboard to chart these ever-changing waters while safeguarding their livelihoods.
As grey-zone warfare develops further, experts agree that accidents with fishing vessels will increase in the future. Huang Shih-En cautioned, “By the time the impact becomes really serious, if we only react then, I think it will already be too late.” The future of our community is deeply tied to these sentiments. They are battling to preserve their unique and fragile culture from outside invaders.
Communication Vulnerabilities
Beyond actual, physical threats at sea, the vulnerability of Penghu’s communication infrastructure poses a strategic challenge. While the outer islands remain connected to Taiwan and the rest of the world through undersea cables. From 2019 to 2023, outside factors played a role in harming these special cables, as they were damaged multiple times by collisions.
Puma Shen, an analyst on Taiwan’s security landscape, highlighted that past lessons from conflicts like Ukraine illustrate the importance of defending one’s homeland. In his remarks, he underscored the importance of Taiwan being vigilant. Its expeditionary communication networks would be a key target and a vital asset for both US forces and potential adversaries.
“What happened there in Ukraine at the very beginning, Russia didn’t really cut their internet connection because they believed they could actually utilise the internet connection to disseminate fake news,” – Puma Shen.
As tensions rise around Penghu, residents are increasingly aware that their communication lines could be exploited or severed during conflict scenarios. Modern day warfare is unbelievably complicated. As the Penghu community showed, communities need to be on the lookout for different kinds of aggressions.
Shen warned against resting on their laurels. He warned against the use of cognitive warfare techniques aimed at shaping public perception within Taiwan. In particular, he noted how much of the American public remains up for grabs on a potential conflict with China. This confusion renders them vulnerable to exploitation.
“They want to persuade that 30 per cent to move them to the surrender side,” – Puma Shen.
These tactics are intended to build division within Taiwan, and might make it harder to respond in the moment when stakes are highest. For Penghu’s fishermen, the stories of their challenges at sea are deep and wide. These persistent problems exacerbate their fight, underscoring the critical importance of local leaders fighting for stronger protections.
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