Climate change has made disasters increasingly dangerous and indiscriminate, claiming hundreds of thousands of lives in recent years from extreme storms to scorching heat. Dozens more have perished from flooding, landslides, and accidents amplified by a lack of early warning systems. A research team at the University of Pennsylvania has taken some big steps toward overcoming those obstacles. Under the direction of engineer Paris Perdikaris, they’ve developed an innovative AI-based weather forecasting model. This cutting-edge technology is poised to improve the precision of cyclone forecasts, ultimately saving lives in an increasingly chaotic climate.
The new AI model has recently accomplished an astounding 90% increase in prediction accuracy for cyclones. It reflects a 20 to 25 percent increase for the events that occurred in 2022 and 2023. The system has consistently and substantially beaten dour official forecasts. It gives extremely precise warnings of cyclones up to five days ahead, a technological accomplishment the research team claims has “never been done before.” This advance notice is very important. Take the recent July 2023 forecast of Typhoon Doksuri, where forecasters underplayed the storm’s eventual trajectory, warning Philippine citizens only five hours before landfall.
The devastating impact of Typhoon Doksuri was yet another example of the dire need for more advanced forecasting tools. With no time to evacuate – or even at all times with enough advance warning to prepare – the storm was devastating, and many lives were lost as a result. Perdikaris emphasized the importance of accurate predictions in today’s climate: “In a changing climate, the stakes for accurate Earth systems prediction could not be higher.”
The AI model works by predicting the most probable path that atmospheric conditions will take over time. In order to do this, the team has to run models every single day, using highly sophisticated mathematical and physics equations that involve intensive compute power. Although traditional physics-based weather forecasting is possible within just a few hours on supercomputers, creating these new models can often take decades. This lengthy process has been exacerbated by recent cuts in funding and staffing at the National Weather Service by the U.S. government.
Megan Stanley, a prominent figure in climate science, underscored the urgency of timely forecasts: “As we all know from many cases of typhoons and hurricanes, having even a day’s advance notice is enough to save a lot of lives.” The AI model’s ability to offer these warnings in advance would be game-changing for vulnerable communities.
The team looked at cyclone tracks predicted for the Atlantic basin during 2022 and 2023 by seven of the world’s major forecasting centers. Their results show that the AI model doesn’t just meet existing predictive power, but surpasses it. This development ensures a safer, more predictable option for addressing the growing number of severe and more frequent weather-related disasters.
As climate change increasingly upends weather patterns around the world, creative approaches such as this new AI-based forecasting model are needed now more than ever. The ability to predict cyclones more accurately could significantly alter preparedness strategies for vulnerable regions, reducing casualties and infrastructure damage.
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