The Arctic region is witnessing a resurgence of military and economic tensions as nations vie for control over its abundant resources and strategic routes. This renewed competition, primarily driven by China, Russia, and the United States, signals a shift from cooperation to confrontation. Over the past decade, China has invested more than US$90 billion in infrastructure projects centered on energy and minerals across the Arctic. Russia has constructed over 475 military facilities from 2014 to 2019, further highlighting the militarization of the region. Meanwhile, the United States, accounting for approximately 12 percent of global rare earth production in 2023, is focusing on Greenland due to its strategic significance.
China's increasing influence in the Arctic has faced significant opposition from the US and NATO allies, particularly concerning its investments in ports and energy projects. The US perceives these moves as a threat to its strategic interests, especially given that 25 of the 34 minerals classified as "critical raw materials" have been discovered in Greenland. This competition extends beyond resources, with military maneuvers in the region escalating tensions. In July 2024, US and Russian nuclear-capable strategic bombers were seen flying over the Chukchi and Bering seas, reminiscent of Cold War-era hostilities.
China's primary motivation in the Arctic lies in securing resources and energy, a pursuit that has led to tensions with Western allies. The Transpolar Sea Route, a crucial shipping lane beyond the exclusive economic zones of Arctic coastal states, remains a focal point for these nations. This route could significantly reduce travel time between Asia and Europe, offering substantial economic benefits.
“Worse still, it could also encourage many of the fearful nations to openly seek military alliances with enemies of the US, such as Russia, China and Iran – an outcome that would far from strengthen US security,” – Amalendu Misra
The United States' attempts to counter China's influence have included a strategic focus on Greenland. This region's growing geopolitical importance has prompted increased US presence and interest, particularly in rare earth elements where China currently dominates.
“Rare earths are especially of interest, because right now China has a considerable presence in most of those industries, and Trump has made it clear he kind of wants to break China’s dominance in these areas,” – Marc Lanteigne
This geopolitical tussle has also impacted relations between China and Russia, with both countries potentially aligning against perceived US aggression.
“(China and Russia) will become even more tied, to kind of unite together to compete or fight back against Trump’s US in the Arctic,” – Liu Nengye
Despite being beyond any single nation's economic zone, the Transpolar Sea Route remains a closely watched strategic location that could redefine global shipping routes. China's narrative suggests it portrays the US and NATO as responsible for militarizing the Arctic.
“I think China’s language is going to be considerably more blunt … there is going to be a much greater focus on security, as well as the need for the rights of non-Arctic states to be observed,” – Marc Lanteigne
Former US President Donald Trump's statements about acquiring Greenland and taking control of the Panama Canal have further complicated matters.
“For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity,” – Donald Trump
“China is operating the Panama Canal, and we didn’t give it to China, we gave it to Panama, and we’re taking it back,” – Donald Trump
These assertions have raised concerns among international observers about America's intentions and their potential impact on global alliances.
“Even if Trump never makes good on his threats, he has already done enormous damage to America’s global standing and to its alliance system,” – Gideon Rachman
The militarization of the Arctic marks a significant geopolitical shift, with potential consequences for global security dynamics. As NATO's presence potentially increases alongside that of the US in Greenland, Russia is likely to bolster its military capabilities in response.
“I think that if we really start to see NATO become much more active in the Arctic as well as increased US strategic presence in Greenland, first of all, Russia will respond, it will continue to try and build its own Arctic military capability,” – Marc Lanteigne
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