ASML, the world’s largest supplier of computer chip-making equipment, is walking a fine line. Recent tariff announcements have raised questions about its growth outlook for 2025 and 2026. ASML, a Dutch company, makes the only EUV lithography machine capable of accurately laying down the most advanced chip circuitry. Most importantly, it pushes demand from tech titans including industry innovators like Nvidia and Apple. ASML’s net bookings for the first quarter of 2025 fell short of analysts’ expectations, raising concerns about its future performance.
Net bookings booked by ASML during Q1 2025 were €3.9 billion (about $4.4 billion) in the first three months of 2025. This figure came in well short of the €4.89 billion consensus estimate compiled by Visible Alpha, suggesting stormy waters lay ahead. Furthermore, new tariffs on imported parts and raw materials critical to ASML’s manufacturing operation here in the United States add to this newly created uncertainty. Other countries have retaliated by slapping tariffs on American exports as well, making matters even worse.
Despite these obstacles, ASML is undeterred and continues to express high confidence in its future outlook. The firm is now projecting sales of €7.2 billion to €7.7 billion for Q2 2025. This guidance is a little below analysts’ estimates of €7.73 billion, as per LSEG data. It is, however, a very positive sign that it matches that €7.7 billion announced during the last quarter.
Christophe Fouquet, ASML’s Chief Executive Officer, expressed confidence in the company’s growth trajectory during discussions with customers. He added that these discussions reaffirm ASML’s guidance for 2025 and 2026 as growth years. He did recognize the damage done by the tariffs.
“However, the recent tariff announcements have increased uncertainty in the macro environment.” – Christophe Fouquet
Fouquet continued to describe how the changing market landscape, resulting from tariffs, leads to unequal benefits between customers. This situation has created new upside potential and downside risk to the company’s growing revenue forecast.
Roger Dassen, ASML’s finance chief, warned that the fight was threatening to derail global economic growth. He cautioned that the downstream impacts are only beginning to be measured.
“We’re very actively working with the entire ecosystem to try and minimize the overall impact on the whole ecosystem as a result of that.” – Roger Dassen
Artificial intelligence remains a primary growth driver for ASML, as demand for advanced chips continues to rise in various industries. How well the company is able to adjust to prevailing market conditions will determine how skillfully they’re able to work their way through all of these unknowns.
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