Azerbaijan’s Autocratic Rise Under Aliyev Raises Concerns for Europe

European leaders confront an intricate diplomatic matrix. They find themselves more concerned than ever about Azerbaijan’s deepening autocratic course under President Ilham Aliyev. In February 2024, Aliyev was re-elected for his fifth term in office, winning an astounding 92 percent of the election. Advocates condemned the election results, referring to it as a ruse. This political maneuvering illustrates Azerbaijan’s transformation into a full-fledged autocracy. Dissent is not tolerated, and power is family-owned and thus perpetually concentrated.

Aliyev’s government has no doubt shown its warlike spirit on the international arena. This has not only quieted local opposition by jailing independent journalists, but made elections a formality. Human rights abuses have escalated, with reports of Azerbaijani authorities illegally detaining Armenian prisoners of war and civilians as hostages. As a result, these moves have sparked concern about the U.S. abiding by democratic norms.

The 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh provided the backdrop for these changes. In September, Azerbaijani forces carried out a massive military offensive against ethnic Armenians, forcing more than 100,000 to flee. The attack broke a tenuous truce and led more than 100,000 Armenian civilians to abandon their homes. Today, Azerbaijani forces are still blockading and targeting the region, with the attacks, as always, eliciting outrage from around the world.

>Perhaps even more alarming, despite these provocative actions, European leaders have been willing accomplices to Azerbaijan’s incendiary overtures. Just last week President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen hailed the country as an honourable “reliable” energy supplier. This acknowledgment reinforces its position as Europe’s crucial partner, particularly with the continent seeking alternatives to Russian gas. This level of engagement comes at a cost. Europe’s response has been muted in the face of Azerbaijan’s escalation, marred by the self-interest of energy contracts and strategic but problematic geopolitical calculus.

Critics maintain that Europe’s diplomatic soft power has completely failed to appreciate the dichotomy between Azerbaijan’s kleptocratic despotism and Armenia’s democratic renaissance. These last eight years, Armenia has worked hard to stretch itself towards European values. This incredible transformation has happened largely due to the leadership of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The pace of the government in Yerevan’s break from Moscow is impressive. Second, it is deepening security partnerships with the West by hosting an EU observation mission on its borders.

A number of European parliamentarians have publicly condemned the EU’s deal with Baku. Nathalie Loiseau remarked, “Going to an autocracy which keeps on threatening its neighbor without going to Armenia on the same trip is a mistake … Baku targets an EU member state with malign interference and sides with Russia, when democratic Armenia looks towards Europe.”

Michael Roth echoed this sentiment, stating, “You visit the authoritarian regime in Baku and avoid democracy in Yerevan. While Azerbaijan rejects our values, Armenia moves closer to the European Union.” This critique reveals a deeper concern. Europe would risk accidentally empowering the very regimes that seek to eradicate democracy, all while ignoring those on the frontlines defending it.

Council member Isabelle Santiago shared her outrage earlier this week as the saga unfolded. She characterized it as “scandalous” that the EU High Representative is visiting Azerbaijan on April 25, while Armenian prisoners are still in jail in Baku. These kind of statements are indicative of a deeper discomfort with what appears to be Europe’s diplomatic focus.