Beijing is cautiously advancing its diplomatic ties with the United Kingdom and Japan, engaging in a delicate balancing act as it navigates the complexities of international relations. Despite the promising early stages of rapprochement, significant challenges persist that could hinder or even derail these efforts. Concurrently, former U.S. President Donald Trump has stirred controversy among American allies with his recent comments about possibly annexing Greenland and making Canada the 51st American state. Trump's America-first agenda is met with skepticism by several European leaders, though French President Emmanuel Macron has expressed steadfast support, declaring France a "solid ally" of Trump.
In a historic diplomatic move, a Japanese foreign minister visited Beijing for the first time in seven years. This visit signifies a potential thaw in Sino-Japanese relations, complemented by Chinese military officials visiting Tokyo last week to resume defense exchanges after a five-year hiatus. The diplomatic outreach reflects a growing sentiment among top strategists in Beijing that Trump's return might offer strategic advantages for China.
The Biden administration has maintained many of the tariffs imposed by Trump on Chinese goods, while also introducing additional levies on Chinese electric cars and solar cells. Conversely, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has sought to mend ties with Beijing following his Labour Party's electoral victory last summer. Meanwhile, China and the Philippines reached a temporary agreement last July to avert further violent incidents around the contentious Second Thomas Shoal.
Biden has reinvigorated the Quad—a strategic security dialogue comprising the United States, India, Japan, and Australia—while uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies pushes China and Japan to pursue a stable bilateral relationship. Nevertheless, tensions persist, as evidenced by recent complaints from the Philippines regarding a "monster" Chinese coast guard ship operating in nearby waters.
As Beijing's relations with the UK and Japan improve, so do its ties with Britain. This gradual shift presents an opportunity for China to realign its diplomatic strategy amidst evolving geopolitical landscapes. Hal Brands notes that some in Beijing are "salivating at the damage they think Trump is going to do to US alliances and the opportunities this creates for Beijing to resurrect some of its relationships with other advanced democracies – Japan and Europe – that had moved in a very sharply anti-China direction since COVID."
"Countries want to at the minimum keep their options open" – Sun Yun
China aims to leverage potential shifts in American foreign policy under Trump to improve relations with U.S. allies and expand economic cooperation. Wu Xinbo argues that "it is possible that Trump may drift away from US allies, making them pay more attention to China’s role and in fact it has provided a chance for China’s diplomacy." He asserts, "I think we should grasp the chance."
However, the geopolitical landscape remains intricate. Brian Hughes highlights Biden's track record of rallying global allies towards a more competitive stance with China. Marco Rubio characterizes China as "the most potent and dangerous near-peer adversary this nation has ever confronted," reflecting persistent caution among American policymakers regarding China's ambitions.
In contrast, Wu Xinbo points out that from China's perspective, fostering improved relations with American allies and boosting economic partnerships would help mitigate any adverse effects on China-U.S. economic relations stemming from Trump's policies.
"From China’s point of view, improving relations with American allies and increasing economic cooperation will offset the shock to China-US economic relations," – Wu Xinbo
Despite these overtures, some observers remain skeptical about the extent of China's influence over Western democracies. Steve Tsang remarks on the improbability of countries wholly aligning with Beijing for trade benefits alone, stating that "the idea that as a result they will all kowtow to Beijing for more trade is fanciful thinking on the part of some of our Chinese friends.”
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