The recent NATO Summit in Europe was overshadowed by a series of episodic shocks that left leaders transfixed and reeling. Together, these two developments transformed the transatlantic relationship. On the second day of the summit, this time on stage with the U.K. delegation, came another festive moment. They celebrated the 65th birthday of their defense minister James Heappey. The mood soon turned hostile as conversations began. French lawmaker François-Xavier Bellamy expressed the mood perfectly with his spirited statement. He encouraged Europe to just “démarrez-vous,” or in a loose translation, “just deal with it.”
Unfortunately, just as leaders were wrapping their heads around the meaning and implications of Trump’s statements and actions, the geopolitical landscape changed dramatically. As one high-level German official put it, the alternative is “a public uprising against the euro.” This is really crazy and scary,” they said, as the implications of the summit started to settle in. The meeting brought together what was clearly a birthday celebration, but a moment of uncertainty for Europe’s future security.
Geopolitical Shockwaves
It was this NATO summit that marked the beginning of a series of geopolitical shocks initiated by Trump. Further, these crises dented European confidence in its most important ally. In fact, what Trump said in the course of that meeting went beyond controversial to darkly threatening for numerous European leaders. He shamefully went on record to blame Ukraine for starting its war with Russia. “It was wrong for you to have started this war,” he told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
These comments reverberated across the continent. French opposition senator Claude Malhuret noted that, unlike Americans, Europeans understood what was at stake in Munich immediately. As he said to Congress, “Ukraine’s survival and Europe’s survival are in their hands.” Their urgency is understandable. European countries have to reconsider their security situation with the understanding that the American posture is changing.
In stark contrast to Trump’s controversial declarations, U.K. opposition leader Keir Starmer prepared extensively for his meeting with the former president. He was stuck for several hours in the U.K. embassy. He previously made headlines for promising a leading British role in Ukraine and expressed willingness to send British troops on the ground to enforce any peace deal.
Alliances in Flux
The 2023 NATO summit was marked by these new alliances on the European continent as leaders tried to steer through the clear political storm. Back in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron was working the diplomatic circuit, and it was clear he was keen on wooing someone like Friedrich Merz, Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting. Merz acknowledged the difficult road facing Europe. With no time to waste, he contacted supporters from his car immediately following the summit. He wrote a military solidarity declaration to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine on social media platform X, establishing his support for Ukraine on the battlefield.
Last month, European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, told European defense ministers the truth about the continent’s dependence on American engagement. “We shouldn’t take anything off the table before the negotiations even started because it plays to Russia’s court,” she stated, indicating a desire for continued American support amidst rising tensions.
Officials later confirmed that any intended U.S. participation would likely be limited to aerial intelligence and air cover as a last resort if Russia attacked Western troops. This narrow focus raised the alarm even more within European leadership about their own security.
Internal Threats and Reflections
What this terrible invasion did was open debates at NATO on new, internal threats to Europe. As Senator JD Vance recently expressed, “The threat that I worry the most about vis-à-vis Europe is not Russia. It’s not China, it’s not every other external actor in the world. He further developed his concerns about possible destabilization coming from within European countries themselves.
Reactions to Trump crashing the NATO party were decidedly split among participants. People rightly freaked out about his comments and what they mean for high-level diplomatic relations with the Chinese. As one Paris-based ambassador put it, “It made me want to puke.” As one other ambassador put it, “On a very human level … it demonstrates that nothing is sacred.” Their words underscore the human cost of these conversations on all parties.
For all the turmoil that preceded and accompanied Trump’s visit, some smart, forward-looking officials saw a brilliant strategic opportunity. It’s a bigger win! He is going to meet Trump before Putin gets to meet him,” one official said. That would leave him with greater leverage in negotiations to come.
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