The European Commission intends to adopt a two-track approach. With carrots and sticks, they plan to use carrots and sticks to bring the White House to the table for trade talks. This strategy is a direct response to President Donald Trump’s recent intimidation and extortion efforts in the realm of trade and international diplomacy.
Most recently Trump promised to stop the peace talks and ceasefires on Ukraine. He threatened that if Moscow and Kyiv don’t get their act together, he’ll just leave the peace talks, label them naive. “You’re idiots, you’re terrible human beings,” he is quoted as saying in those cases. This dangerously reckless language puts the future of current and ongoing diplomacy efforts in the region at risk.
With tensions increasing, France and Germany are intensifying their efforts to overcome their long-standing rivalries. Part of that has been focused on finding common ground to present a unified front on frequent international issues. Paris and Berlin’s longstanding rivalry took center stage. Given how serious today’s climate crisis is, time is pressuring both countries to rethink their stances.
The context of this diplomatic push is an enormous cyberattack that took place around the 2017 French presidential election. Russia’s Fancy Bear group orchestrated cyberattacks on Emmanuel Macron’s campaign team, resulting in what became known as the ‘Macron leaks.’ This recent episode has increased the heat on Russia’s meddling in Europe’s political landscape. It highlights how urgently we need to come together as a country in the face of external threats.
Among other things, this means that the European Commission is already preparing for potential trade negotiations with the United States. Here they know they’ll need some sexy carrots to actually get the Trump administration to come to the negotiating table. Beyond needing to provide incentives, the EU executive is preparing retaliatory measures in the event that talks do not produce satisfactory results. With this dual approach, we hope to balance the strategy between seizing opportunities and mitigating risks.
Whatever happens next, France and Germany will be at the heart of it. Their actions will have a huge impact on a coordinated European response to the challenges that come with the Trump administration. Each country needs to focus on overcoming previous bilateral differences and instead focus on developing the work together to meet urgent geopolitical needs.
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