France’s hardline opposition to the EU-Mercosur trade agreement is in big trouble. As the global trade landscape changes, these strains are growing harder to downplay. Although France’s official position on the deal remains one of opposition, the changing landscape and continued implementation of the deal necessitates a reexamination of France’s stance. The imminent leadership change in Germany and growing concerns regarding EU exports to the United States are contributing factors that could influence France’s approach.
Just today, on April 9th, Ireland’s Minister for Trade doubled and tripled down on his country’s opposition to this agreement. Shortly after, they were joined by Austria in standing resolutely against the agreement with Mercosur. The Netherlands and Poland have already made clear their opposition to the deal. Yet, this obvious mismatch reveals a divided front among EU member states. With Friedrich Merz as Chancellor of Germany, his arrival is causing a storm. Pressure is building on France and the other countries opposing the deal, and this could result in dramatic shifts in coalitions and strategies within the EU.
The agreement, negotiated last December, aims to create one of the world’s largest free trade zones. This zone will connect approximately 750 million people and is home to about one-fifth of the world’s economy. Against a backdrop of growing U.S. protectionism, the European Union has become more eager than ever to pursue new trade partnerships around the globe. This renewed momentum only highlights how important the Mercosur agreement is. Meanwhile, Latin American countries are busily searching out new opportunities as U.S. markets grow ever more stringent.
Though it has not announced any formal policy change, France now admits that conditions have changed for the Mercosur agreement. The French diplomat conceded, “Our position has not changed. The situation has changed, and we’re adapting to that.” This acknowledgment is emblematic of a broader realization that holding the line just isn’t tenable.
A French official added to this sentiment, emphasizing the shifting dynamics: “The context is now in favour of the Mercosur agreement, and the Latin American countries are looking for opportunities as the US market is closing. This must lead us to be ambitious in terms of protecting the environment and our farmers.”
In a recent panel organized by Transport and Environment, departing MEP Marie-Pierre Vedrenne (France/Renew) took an optimistic outlook on the multi-modal agreement. She stated, “I do hold a personal conviction: remaining opposed to this agreement on principle alone doesn’t seem reasonable to me.” This shift suggests that there may be room for negotiation or adaptation within France’s position as it navigates internal and external pressures.
Italy is a strong supporter of the Mercosur agreement. It’s not giving up on making sure that the final text addresses the potential negative impacts on agriculture. In the meantime, the European Commission is standing tough, claiming it has no intention of changing the terms of the agreement.
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