Canadian researchers Gilaad Kaplan and Ng Siew Chien recently co-led a study with extremely alarming findings. They forecast a sharp rise in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) cases in Hong Kong. Based on their modeling, the study expected nearly 76,000 more cases. They predict the rate will increase from 40 per 100,000 people in 2014 to a staggering 100 per 100,000 by 2034. Alarmingly, this trend has precipitated a collapse of the public’s future health. Consequently, healthcare costs and administrative burden are through the roof.
The study, published in the prestigious journal Nature, highlights the broader implications of rising IBD rates, not only in Hong Kong but in other relatively newly industrialized nations across Asia and Latin America. In mainland China, the incidence of new IBD cases increased substantially. It went from only 2 per 100,000 people in 2010 to 15 per 100,000 people in 2020. Researchers estimate that the overall prevalence of IBD patients in mainland China will be more than 1.5 million by 2024.
What drives incidence Kaplan explained that the rise of new IBD cases is strikingly in sync with the trajectory of economic development. This trend reflects how areas that are economically developing can come under greater health burdens. These challenges are a consequence of sedentary lifestyle and increased caloric intake.
In her speech, Ng Siew Chien reminded fellow lawmakers of the significant financial burden IBD places on patients and their families. The average annual medical cost for each patient is about HK$40,000 to HK$50,000, equivalent to roughly US$6,380. This burden is nearly two times higher than what type 2 diabetes people pay. This calls attention to the increasing strain on our healthcare system as IBD rates soar.
Science clearly identifies poor dietary patterns, particularly high sugar and fat consumption, as a major risk. In Hong Kong alone, cases of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are expected to increase by a staggering 150 percent over the next 20 years. Ng emphasized that dietary choices significantly impact gut health, stating, “These foods actually affect our gut microbiome, which is the bacteria and viruses inside our gut.”
The impact of our growing administrative state supercedes the numbers alone. Consuming unhealthy food immediately kicks off toxins and inflammatory responses. Together, these reactions disrupt the immune system, leaving you more susceptible to IBD. Ng warned that all of these developments are “very frightening,” as they relate to the emerging public health crisis.
Here’s what Ng suggested we do to prevent this serious crisis from booming. He proposed decreasing processed food intake and increasing the prevalence of home-prepared meals. “Less processed food; just cook everything from scratch,” she advised. This strategy would have a tremendous impact on children of IBD patients. It can improve the health of their children by reducing their risk of developing similar health issues.
Kaplan’s research supports the importance of prevention. He noted, “Our models show that if we can prevent the incidence of new diagnoses, even just by a small amount, that has a huge impact on blunting the overall growth or prevalence of the disease.” This discovery underscores the importance of anticipatory health approaches in the fight against IBD.
That past backdrop of IBD prevalence in Hong Kong would not make for a happy story. The steepest increase was just over 0.1 per 100,000 in 1985 and increased to nearly 3 per 100,000 by 2013. By 2023, this number is projected to have surpassed 4 per 100,000. The rate of increase of these figures is an ominous sign of a bigger trend pushed by urbanization and lifestyle changes.
Kaplan remarked on the urgency of addressing these rising rates: “We call this probably an explosion.” His concern extends beyond current cases. The older IBD patients presented a greater challenge to manage health, he noted. This difficulty only increases when they go on to acquire other ailments such as diabetes or dementia.
The study’s findings couldn’t be more timely, with chronic diseases increasing rapidly across the world due to harmful effects of globalization, urbanization and unhealthy lifestyles. From the Netherlands to Norway, countries enjoying an otherwise robust economy are grappling with the same alarming trend of IBD prevalence. “The earlier a country transitions into economic advancements, the earlier we see that trigger into stage two,” Kaplan explained.
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