Iran is bracing for potential challenges as the possibility of another Donald Trump presidency looms. Eshaq Jahangiri, Iran's then-vice president, previously described the period following Trump's initial presidency as the "toughest" since the inception of the Islamic Republic. The economic and political landscape in Iran could be further destabilized by a new Trump administration, posing significant risks to the country's leadership.
During Trump's campaign, Iran's oil exports plummeted to a historic low of under 400,000 barrels per day. This drastic reduction in oil exports severely impacted Iran's economy, as petrodollars account for approximately 70% of government revenues. Consequently, the country experienced a steep depreciation of its national currency by more than 600% between 2018 and 2020.
The economic situation in Iran continues to be a pressing concern for its leadership. The potential for a renewed Trump administration exacerbates these concerns, as it could lead to economic shocks similar to those experienced during his previous term. The risks extend beyond economic instability; the potential for bolder military actions against the regime and increased protest movements also threaten Iran's clerical establishment.
In recent times, Iran has engaged in tit-for-tat strikes with Israel, escalating tensions in the region. This volatile situation poses the threat of a wider Middle East war, adding another layer of complexity to Iran's current challenges. The country's leadership remains wary of the potential for further destabilization should the geopolitical climate shift unfavorably.
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