Iran on Edge: The Prospect of Trump’s Return Raises Concerns

The potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency raises significant concerns in Iran, with fears of economic and geopolitical repercussions. During his previous tenure, Trump's administration imposed stringent sanctions that slashed Iran's oil exports to a historic low, significantly impacting the nation's economy. The sanctions, coupled with geopolitical tensions, have placed Iran's clerical establishment on high alert as they brace for possible challenges under a renewed Trump administration.

The economic sanctions implemented by Trump's administration had far-reaching effects on Iran's economy. The nation's oil exports plunged to less than 400,000 barrels per day, severely cutting into Iran's petrodollars, which constitute approximately 70 percent of government revenues. The dramatic reduction in oil exports led to a more than 600 percent depreciation of Iran's national currency between 2018 and 2020. This economic downturn posed immense risks for Iran's leadership, with the country's then-vice president, Eshaq Jahangiri, describing the subsequent year as the "toughest" since the Islamic Republic's founding.

The depreciation of the national currency and loss of revenue from oil exports compounded internal pressures on Iran's clerical establishment. The sanctions not only strained the economy but also increased the likelihood of protest movements within the country. The economic instability and dissatisfaction among the populace threaten to destabilize the regime further, making it vulnerable to internal dissent.

Geopolitically, the situation remains tense with recent tit-for-tat strikes between Iran and Israel exacerbating fears of a broader Middle East conflict. A new Trump administration could potentially escalate tensions through bolder military actions against the Iranian regime. The possibility of increased military interventions adds another layer of complexity to the already volatile regional dynamics.

Iran's leadership is acutely aware of the multifaceted threats posed by a potential second Trump presidency. Economic shocks, increased protest movements, and heightened military actions are all seen as potential challenges that could undermine the clerical establishment's hold on power. The specter of a renewed Trump administration looms large over Tehran, as they navigate both domestic and international uncertainties.