Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has strategically appointed an informal advisory group to guide Malaysia's chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Among the key figures leading this group is former Thai Premier Thaksin Shinawatra. This development, unveiled gradually, aims to address the ongoing Myanmar crisis through expert recommendations. Anwar secured Paetongtarn's approval to appoint Thaksin, benefiting from his strong connections with the Myanmar junta, enabling effective engagement with its leadership.
The advisory group's formation includes prominent figures such as former Indonesian foreign minister Retno Marsudi, former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, and Singapore's George Yeo. However, the group's membership remains unofficial, as confirmed by Malaysia's Foreign Affairs Ministry and Prime Minister's Office. Anwar's long-standing relationship with Yeo, dating back to 1990 through an introduction by the late Malaysian finance minister Daim Zainuddin, highlights Yeo's valuable experience from various advisory roles in the corporate sector.
While the formation of this group is seen as a "marginally positive" step in addressing the Myanmar crisis, it represents only a small step forward. Bridget Welsh, a representative from a think tank, views engaging informal advisers as a cautious move by Malaysia to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach, observing how other ASEAN member states react to this strategy. The notion of relying on informal advisers instead of official channels raises questions about the effectiveness and potential distractions this may cause in resolving the Myanmar crisis.
Thaksin's involvement has sparked debates among experts. James Chin, an Asian studies professor, suggests that Thaksin's participation might divert attention from the core issues surrounding Myanmar. Sharon Seah, a senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, argues that Anwar's approach risks creating a "boys club" of advisers, potentially alienating regional governments. This sentiment is echoed by a former Malaysian diplomat who cautions against over-reliance on foreign advisers when local expertise is available.
The group's unofficial status allows it to operate without requiring consensus from all ASEAN states. Chin emphasized:
“The moment you make them official, you need the agreement of all the ASEAN states,”
This flexible arrangement enables the advisers to engage with Myanmar and China informally, exploring potential solutions without complicating diplomatic processes. Chin further explained:
“You don’t want to complicate things; you just say ‘these are my unofficial advisers’, they go abroad and they know all these people in Myanmar and China. Let them talk, see what jumps up. (There is) no harm.”
Anwar's decision reflects his preference for depending on a select group of trusted advisers rather than relying solely on his cabinet and governmental establishment. This approach aligns with his leadership style, as noted by a former Malaysian diplomat:
“His preferred style is to depend upon a few close advisers of his own choosing instead of falling back on his own cabinet and the establishment.”
Despite questions regarding the tangible benefits of foreign advisers, some view this as an opportunity for Malaysia to assert itself on the ASEAN stage. The involvement of prominent figures like Thaksin offers unique perspectives and access that local experts may not possess.
The advisory group also includes a senior statesman from Laos and Brunei's Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, as mentioned by Malaysia's Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan in parliament. This diverse membership underscores Malaysia's intent to leverage regional expertise to navigate complex diplomatic challenges.
However, concerns remain about the clarity and scope of discussions with key figures like Thaksin and Yeo. Azmi Hassan highlighted uncertainties regarding their roles:
“On the (recent) discussions with Thaksin, I know Myanmar was the particular issue, but with George Yeo, we have no idea yet. Whether Hun Sen or Retno will be roped in, we have no idea yet.”
The wait-and-see attitude adopted by Anwar and the Prime Minister's Office reflects a cautious strategy to gauge regional reactions before fully committing to this unconventional advisory approach:
“I think it's just a wait-and-see attitude from Anwar and also the PMO to see the reaction from other ASEAN members regarding this particular strategy of an unofficial special adviser to the chairman of ASEAN.” – Azmi Hassan
Additionally, Sharon Seah speculates that Prof Mohd Faiz Abdullah might play a crucial bridging role between this informal advisory group and Malaysia's foreign ministry:
“Possibly, PM Anwar could be using Prof Mohd Faiz Abdullah to play a bridging role between his informal advisory group, the Track 2 community and with (the foreign ministry) Wisma Putra.”
The inclusion of Thaksin is strategic due to his unofficial status, making him an accessible interlocutor for Myanmar's junta:
“Thaksin doesn't officially hold a political post, so (the junta is) more likely to speak to him. Maybe they are more forthcoming with him about how they want to settle the Myanmar issue.” – James Chin
This dynamic enables candid discussions that might otherwise be hindered by formal diplomatic constraints.
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