In the early days of his presidency, Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia's newly-elected leader, has faced a tumultuous start, characterized by political missteps and policy reversals. As the de facto leader of ASEAN, Indonesia's moves on the global stage are closely scrutinized. Prabowo's initial 100 days have been marked by a series of snubs and the controversial decision to join BRICS, raising questions about Indonesia's diplomatic directions and its tilt away from Western alliances.
Among Prabowo’s contentious decisions was his plan to increase the Value Added Tax (VAT) by 1%, a continuation of a 2021 regulation. However, this proposal was abruptly shelved following significant public backlash. Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Prabowo's finance minister, had been advocating for this fiscal change slated for January 1, only to abandon it at the last moment. This U-turn reflects the difficulties Prabowo faces in balancing economic strategies with public sentiment.
Prabowo's foreign policy has also drawn attention for its apparent lack of cohesion. Foreign Minister Sugiono, a close ally, has been active in promoting a "free and active" policy during overseas visits. This approach marks a shift from Indonesia's traditional foreign policy that emphasized fostering a strong regional community. Critics have characterized Prabowo's foreign policy as "free, active and confused," highlighting a series of puzzling statements and actions that suggest a departure from coherent diplomatic strategies.
The president's first 100 days have largely been shaped by personal interests rather than a broader consideration of national needs. A school-based free lunch program for children, long promised during his campaign, was launched this month, showcasing his commitment to fulfilling electoral promises. However, this initiative stands in contrast to the broader perception of a presidency marked by confusion and disorganization.
Prabowo's cabinet has not escaped criticism either. Many members have been transferred from the previous administration under President Joko Widodo, leading to concerns over their levels of experience and expertise. This reshuffling has sparked debates over the government’s readiness to address pressing domestic and regional issues.
One significant regional challenge is the ongoing Myanmar crisis. Prabowo’s decision to snub a Thailand-led initiative to gather ASEAN foreign ministers in Bangkok last month has been viewed as a diplomatic misstep. Indonesia's absence from this meeting disappointed many who were hoping for stronger regional leadership in addressing the crisis.
The decision to join BRICS has been another focal point of Prabowo's early presidency. While it opens up new multilateral avenues for Indonesia, it also raises concerns about a possible pivot away from established Western partnerships. Observers are cautious about how this move might redefine Indonesia’s international relations and economic strategies.
Despite these challenges, Prabowo's presidency remains in its infancy, with many believing that the next stages will be more consequential. The initial phase has been marred by policy reversals and diplomatic faux pas, but it is yet to be seen how Prabowo will navigate these obstacles moving forward.
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