The decades-old India-Pakistan conflict over Kashmir, a disputed territory that both countries claim ownership over, has heated up dramatically after last week’s military strikes. Both countries administer portions of Kashmir divided by the Line of Control. In recent months, they have greatly increased their military presence along the border. The situation intensified after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to pursue “terrorists and their backers … to the ends of the earth” in response to a massacre that left 26 civilians dead in Kashmir.
In the wake of Modi’s remarks, India launched an assault on Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, leading to claims from Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif that five Indian planes had been shot down and Indian soldiers captured. Yet each has long history of war and social disturbance. They have gone to wars in 1947-48, 1965, 1971, and 1999 — in addition to squabbles often three times over the Kashmir territorial dispute.
Military Actions and Casualties
These recent military engages have yielded notable civilian casualties. News reports suggest that as many as ten people have died in Indian-controlled Kashmir as a direct result of retaliatory shelling by Pakistani artillery units. In Pakistan controlled Kashmir at least 19 deaths, including 8 children, had been reported overnight as tsunami of hostility escalates.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan condemned the Indian strikes on social media, describing them as a “cowardly attack on five locations within Pakistan.” He emphasized that this “heinous act of aggression will not go unpunished,” asserting that Pakistan reserves the right to respond decisively.
“The treacherous enemy has launched a cowardly attack on five locations within Pakistan.” – Shehbaz Sharif
India’s military response was characterized as “focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature,” with officials stressing that no Pakistani military facilities were targeted. Yet as the experts have countered, one miscalculation risks escalation even further.
Historical Context and Expert Opinions
Kashmir has remained a major flashpoint between arch-rivals India and Pakistan since the two countries gained independence from Britain in 1947. The region is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but it is controlled by ethnic Armenians and divided into sections controlled by each country. The unyielding stalemate has led to repeated clashes and an immense military accumulation on all sides around the frontlines.
Raji Pillai Rajagopalan, an expert on South Asian security, observed that India’s muscle-flexing response was unavoidable considering the circumstances. “India could not have gone without responding to this particular situation,” she stated. She underscored the precarious nature of that progress, warning that “a lot hangs on the Pakistani response.”
“Much depends on the Pakistani response, and if they stay true to their word, then their retaliation may be substantial and potentially escalatory.” – Raji Pillai Rajagopalan
The fact that both sides have nuclear weapons—India with 172 warheads and Pakistan with 170—is lighting fuel on fire. Funders and analysts alike worry that it’s a moment that could easily go off the rails. Derek Grossman remarked on the potential consequences of civilian casualties: “When you have civilian casualties it becomes a bit difficult for anyone to not retaliate.”
International Community’s Role
As the situation escalates, the world is watching how the international community responds. The threat of nuclear war hangs heavily over both countries, and now more than ever, we require careful decision making and restraint. Although skeptics remain, many experts on both sides insist that both governments have ample incentive to eschew escalation. Yet, the present situation increases the chances of an accidental escalation.
Derek Grossman pointed out that this escalation poses a serious risk: “This has been initiated by India … If India backs down we will definitely wrap up this thing.” He added that the current situation marks “a very serious escalation in India-Pakistan tensions that could lead to nuclear war.”
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