Southeast Asia’s Diplomatic Dance: Navigating South China Sea Tensions

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim urged Southeast Asian nations to avoid singling out Beijing over disputes in the South China Sea. This region remains a contentious area as Beijing continues to assert its claims against its regional neighbors. Anwar’s remarks are part of a broader strategy to maintain stable relations with China amidst escalating maritime tensions and the uncertainties surrounding US-China relations under a potential Trump administration return.

"Beijing is now in contention with regional neighbours over the entire South China Sea" – Thitinan Pongsudhirak

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto mirrors this cautious approach by joining the China-driven BRICS group as a full member, indicating a preference for diplomacy over conflict. Malaysia, similarly, has opted not to "go to war" or "threaten" China despite ongoing maritime issues. This approach draws attention to the fundamentally different nature of China's actions in Southeast Asia compared to its past disputes with countries like Vietnam.

ASEAN member states are currently taking a wait-and-see stance concerning China, potentially influenced by how a possible second Trump administration might manage its Beijing relations. Anwar’s pragmatic stance reflects an effort to deftly navigate these geopolitical waters, emphasizing that boundary disputes will always be a part of Asia's complex landscape.

Malaysia's strategy involves maintaining robust relationships with its neighbors, as evidenced by its handling of border issues with Singapore and other Southeast Asian countries. This approach signals a preference for dialogue and cooperation in resolving disputes.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor of political science and international relations at Chulalongkorn University in Thailand, suggests that Anwar is downplaying China's regional challenge to better steer through the turbulent geopolitical climate. The South China Sea disputes remain a significant concern for countries in Southeast Asia, as they weigh their diplomatic relations amid the uncertain dynamics of US-China interactions.