Timor-Leste, a nation with a rich history and significant geopolitical relationships, is on a promising trajectory to join the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) by 2025. This ambition, which traces back to its formal application in 2011, is driven by the country's impressive strides in political, economic, and socio-cultural domains. Guided by President José Ramos-Horta, Timor-Leste seeks to leverage its unique ties with global powers such as China and the United States, as well as regional neighbors including Australia and Indonesia, to secure its place in ASEAN.
The path to ASEAN membership requires meeting critical milestones across three pillars: political security, economic development, and socio-cultural integration. Since 2023, Timor-Leste has demonstrated remarkable progress towards these objectives. The country operates under a semi-presidential political system, where the president is elected by popular vote for a five-year term and appoints the prime minister. President Ramos-Horta's leadership has been pivotal in steering the nation towards this goal.
Timor-Leste's economic stability further strengthens its ASEAN aspirations. Despite a public external debt of approximately US$267 million—around 13.7% of its non-oil GDP—the nation remains confident in its fiscal health. President Ramos-Horta emphasized that Timor-Leste does not face a debt trap, given its prudent borrowing practices.
"We don't have any loans from China, and we don't have any loans from Western banks. In total, our total debt is only 13 per cent of our gross domestic product (GDP), the lowest in the world. Second, our loans are only with the Asian Development Bank, with World Bank, International Finance Corporation, and (are) very small," said President Ramos-Horta.
Timor-Leste's relationships with neighboring countries like Australia and Indonesia are crucial to its ASEAN bid. While historical tensions with Indonesia persist, efforts are underway to forge a collaborative future. The country's partnership with Singapore also presents strategic opportunities for deeper economic engagement.
"Really dumb and lazy if we do not benefit": Timor-Leste president on hopes of joining ASEAN in 2025 – Timor-Leste president.
Moreover, Timor-Leste maintains a special relationship with China, reflected in initiatives like the Noble People's Republic of China Hall within its presidential palace—a unique feature among ASEAN nations.
"It seems it (the hall) is the only one in the world, in ASEAN (countries), where there is a dedicated space like (this) in a ministry, in a royal palace or presidential palace," remarked President Ramos-Horta.
China's involvement in Timor-Leste's economy has been notably positive, and the nation's leadership views this relationship as beneficial.
"Generally, Chinese presence in Timor-Leste has been enormously beneficial to our economy," President Ramos-Horta noted.
On the diplomatic front, President Ramos-Horta has also engaged with international leaders to strengthen Timor-Leste's global standing. His discussions with former U.S. President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden underscore his strategic approach to international relations.
"I'm a friend of Xi Jinping. With China, the United States will help resolve many of the world's problems. That is what President Trump says. I very much welcome that," stated President Ramos-Horta.
The roadmap for Timor-Leste's full membership in ASEAN was solidified in May 2023. This plan outlines the necessary steps for integration into the regional bloc. Despite some challenges, the nation has already fulfilled over 70% of these requirements.
"So not every country has been able to do that. We have done it already – more than 70 per cent. Many ASEAN countries are saying there is no need or not fair to expect Timor-Leste to implement all the treaties. It's just enough that we have done plenty," explained President Ramos-Horta.
The historical backdrop of Timor-Leste adds depth to its current ambitions. After more than four centuries as a Portuguese colony, the country gained independence in 2002. Today, it boasts a population of 1.4 million people and shares the island of Timor with Indonesia.
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