The former President Donald Trump’s strategy with the ongoing trade battle with China is clearly backfiring. Now, he’s wading through a morass of tariffs and negotiations. He felt that everything that they did successfully with Mexico and Canada would work with China. This assumption has proven to be a very costly mistake.
Trump’s signature trade policy move was to raise tariffs on a variety of Chinese imports. He further believed that these drastic financial pressures would press China to the negotiating table. Instead, China reacted by hitting back with its own tariffs, demonstrating a clear, hard unwillingness to back down in the face of the U.S. demands. That scene has only increased in tension. In fact, Trump has not had a one-on-one discussion with Chinese President Xi Jinping since Trump has imposed the tariffs.
If Trump wants to jumpstart these high-level talks, he probably will have to be the one to go first. Worry, as reports suggest that this would mean going through backchannel intermediaries—not direct messaging. Trump continues to cling to the idea that China will capitulate and remove tariffs. Yet, he expects this to happen without China making any major concessions.
President Xi Jinping has taken major steps to protect China’s economy against outside trade shocks. At home, he’s focusing on policies that increase domestic consumption. This policy leaves China better insulated from the adverse effects of tariffs. More importantly, it confirms the administration’s clear intent to provide assistance to local industries hurt by the continuing US-China trade war.
China has shown willingness to rollback tariffs on specific U.S. exports. These imports, especially pharmaceuticals, are vital lifelines for its economy. The entirety of Trump’s administration proved a huge opening for bad-faith negotiation. They rolled the dice, betting that U.S. tariffs would swiftly produce a new and improved US-China Phase One trade deal. China has failed to meet its promise. It did not come close to delivering on the large, specific purchases of American-made goods and services promised in the agreement.
Yet, even as Trump’s behavior continues to attract unpopularity, with analysts calling out how Trump’s behavior runs against all norms of diplomatic leadership. Harry Broadman remarked, “Trump thought that China was a pushover and so he behaved like a New Yorker saying ‘let’s do a deal.’” This latter angle focuses more on the naiveté of Trump’s expectations versus the actual realities of international diplomacy.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi of China has made phone calls in recent days to the UK and EU foreign ministers. This latest move demonstrates China’s willingness to renegotiate, particularly as the U.S. enters a very vulnerable state. An administration official noted, “We are not going to move the needle until they move.”
Though the future of communications between the White House and Beijing are still up in the air, according to WaPo, discussions, if they resume, could change shape rapidly. One person briefed on those negotiations said that it might be tonight, indicating that the dynamics could be changing.
Looking at the photo above, it is evident how frustrated Trump is over the layout of the stage. He even proposes that Boeing “default” on China for not accepting delivery of three airplanes. “This is just a small example of what China has done to the USA, for years,” Trump stated.
“China and the U.S. are not having any consultation or negotiation on tariffs — the U.S. should stop creating confusion.” – Guo Jiakun
As both sides navigate this challenging landscape, it is evident that China’s resilience and strategic planning have positioned it favorably in this trade war, while Trump’s tactics may need reevaluation to achieve a productive outcome.
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