Euro area consumers raise inflation expectations as growth outlook weakens
The ECB’s September survey put expected inflation for the next 12 months at 3.1 per cent, while expectations at longer horizons were unchanged.
Euro area consumers expected higher inflation and weaker economic growth in September than in August, according to the European Central Bank’s Consumer Expectations Survey, published on 23 October 2026. The median inflation expectation for the coming 12 months rose from 3.0 per cent to 3.1 per cent.
Consumers put inflation over the preceding year at a median 3.6 per cent, up from 3.5 per cent. Their median forecasts at the three-year and five-year horizons held at 2.9 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively.
The economic growth rate respondents expected for the coming year fell from -1.2 per cent to -1.5 per cent. They anticipated an unemployment rate of 11.3 per cent in 12 months, compared with 11.0 per cent in August.
Expected nominal income growth over the coming year increased from 1.0 per cent to 1.1 per cent, while expected nominal spending growth moved from 3.6 per cent to 3.7 per cent.
Respondents forecast a 3.5 per cent rise in the value of their own homes over the next year, against 3.4 per cent in August. Their mortgage-rate expectation stood at 4.9 per cent, unchanged since July.
The monthly online survey covers around 19,000 adults across 11 euro area countries. Fieldwork for the September results ran from 27 August to 28 September 2026.
