ECB survey puts 2027 inflation at 2.6 per cent as forecasts rise
Higher energy costs drove the inflation revisions, while respondents kept their longer-term forecast at 2.0 per cent.
Euro area inflation is expected to reach 3.0 per cent in 2026 and 2.6 per cent in 2027, according to professional forecasters surveyed by the European Central Bank (ECB). The fourth-quarter findings, published on 30 October 2026, also showed an improved near-term growth outlook.
The inflation estimates represent increases of 0.3 percentage points for 2026 and 0.4 percentage points for 2027. The ECB said higher energy costs and their indirect effects were the main reasons for the changes. Respondents retained a 2.0 per cent forecast for 2028 and the same rate for 2031.
Answers to a question about the Middle East war indicated that respondents expected additional effects from the energy price shock mainly in 2027. They judged inflation risks to be weighted towards higher outcomes during 2026-28, with a more balanced outlook beyond that period.
For real GDP, respondents forecast growth of 1.0 per cent in 2026, raising their estimate by 0.4 percentage points. Their 2027 projection rose by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3 per cent, while the 2028 estimate stayed at 1.3 per cent. Recent data largely accounted for the upgrades, the ECB said.
The expected unemployment rate increased slightly to 6.4 per cent for 2026, before a projected gradual fall to 6.1 per cent in 2031. The survey collected 52 responses between 2 and 7 October 2026 from experts affiliated with European financial and non-financial institutions.
