Ryanair chief expects adequate European jet fuel supplies through summer 2027
Michael O’Leary expects availability to hold unless an unforeseen event intervenes, but sees elevated fuel premiums lasting another 12 to 18 months.
Europe should avoid shortages of jet fuel during winter and through summer 2027, Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary said on 8 October, despite supply-chain disruption caused by the Iran war. Speaking in Brussels at a press conference hosted by Airlines for Europe (A4E), he qualified that outlook by saying an unforeseen event could change it.
O’Leary said jet fuel was currently about 50 per cent more expensive than Brent crude, compared with a historical premium of between 10 per cent and 15 per cent. He expected the elevated premium to last another 12 to 18 months, citing refinery attacks in Russia and the Middle East, limited tanker availability and constraints on refining capacity.
The International Air Transport Association’s latest monitor put the average price for Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States at US$195.95 a barrel for the week ending 2 October, the highest regional average. That was more than twice the year-earlier price, despite a weekly decline of 1 per cent. Globally, the premium over crude was still roughly three times its level a year earlier.
The European Commission said on 8 September that higher refinery production in the EU and imports from alternative sources were covering European jet fuel demand. It warned, however, that additional Middle Eastern disruption could constrain supply.
Kpler senior distillate-markets insight analyst George Shaw said on 23 September that jet fuel prices were likely to remain elevated because of their close connection to an increasingly tight diesel market. Ryanair said it would operate fewer winter flights to limit exposure to fuel costs, lowering its full-year passenger target from 216 million to 214 million.
