ECB tracker signals firmer underlying wage growth into 2027
The measure excluding one-off payments averages 2.8 per cent for January–September 2027, compared with 2.6 per cent for 2026.
Underlying negotiated wage growth is set slightly higher for 2027’s first three quarters than for 2026 overall, the European Central Bank (ECB) said on 4 November 2026. Its updated tracker incorporates collective pay agreements signed by mid-October 2026 and now reaches September 2027.
The headline indicator puts second-half 2026 pay growth at 2.7 per cent, followed by 2.8 per cent for first-half 2027 and 2.4 per cent in the third quarter. This measure spreads one-off payments across 12 months. Relative to its September 2026 update, the ECB lifted readings for second-half 2026 and first-half 2027 by an average of around 0.1 percentage points.
Without one-off payments, the tracker shows 2.9 per cent growth for first-half 2027, easing to 2.5 per cent in the third quarter. The ECB said recently signed agreements continued to suggest limited scope for such payments.
The bank cautioned that the later readings rest on narrower employee coverage. For 2026, the data cover 46.2 per cent of employees across participating countries, against 31.8 per cent for first-half 2027 and 23.3 per cent for the third quarter. Coverage will expand as further agreements are signed, it said.
The ECB stressed that the forward-looking figures are not forecasts and remain open to revision because they reflect only available collective agreements. The tracker combines data from nine euro area countries. Its next update is scheduled for 18 December 2026 and will extend coverage through the end of 2027.
