Europe could face gas shortfall of up to 15 per cent in severe winter
EU gas stores were 72 per cent full on 1 October, against 83 per cent a year earlier, as operators warned of risks from restricted LNG supplies.
A winter outlook from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG), published on 8 October 2026, warns that severe cold could leave Europe with a gas supply gap equivalent to 12 to 15 per cent of demand. Its two scenarios both exclude deliveries of Russian pipeline gas.
ENTSOG said filling storage had proved difficult ahead of winter. Europe is increasingly dependent on liquefied natural gas (LNG) traded internationally, while the US has become the EU's largest LNG supplier.
The outlook projects that limited LNG supplies could push European storage down to 13 per cent by March 2027, even in a normal winter. Energy-intensive businesses could consequently have to lower production, while elevated prices may reduce consumption among users sensitive to costs.
Another risk identified by ENTSOG is the combination of an outage at the largest offshore gas infrastructure supplying continental Europe and the loss of all Algerian pipeline imports. The operators warned that this would seriously threaten the EU's security of supply.
Coastal LNG facilities and pipeline supplies have benefited western Europe, but landlocked countries in central, eastern and southeastern Europe are more exposed. A harsh winter combined with major pipeline disruption could constrain west-to-east flows. Local shortages in southeastern Europe could reach 12 per cent on peak-demand days.
Brussels has called for countries to continue adding gas to storage early in winter and cooperate over any reductions in demand. Member states have been allowed temporary flexibility to reach storage levels of 75 to 80 per cent by 1 November, rather than the standard 90 per cent target.
